The paradoxical behavior of the crowd! Do you?
earlier this year, I wrote in an article
that I feel unsafe in 2010 to predict what would
draft economic development. Scenarios of
"decline accompanied by demonstrations and other
crisis is over, the great boom had come from resisting.
balancing act as I've described it.
Well, you may have heard before, that the
wings of a butterfly, the weather in Europe can affect
. How do you want then anything can predict?
In complex system, it is often many unknown factors and
so many possible interactions that clear predictions
are always impossible.
why we need long-term forecasts also scarcely believe.
weather we think now to have the 14 day is relatively safe to predict
to can, but not more. Therefore it almost amusing that
at start up companies develop business plans for "the next 5 years"
be required laws politicians want because you "just know
as the his world in 20 years ", etc..
course of complex nonlinear systems and are therefore not as
predictable. But almost all the future scenarios are based on linear extrapolation
. The only what we know is that it is just not so.
"First, it is different, secondly, as you think," the saying goes.
fascinating how we can still insisting on a future version.
But worse, we can still act to completely paradoxical.
fear Currently, many people, the times of high inflation, confront us
and find the rising national debt
scary. But what are they doing?
you buying government bonds, so just the debt
they scare.
frighten you in front of the fire and believe the fact to protect,
that they pour oil into fire. Paradox! The next big bubble is created,
because really rise when interest rates are going to bond values in the cellar.
The better safety stocks today, is still where the profitability
and the sometimes deliver higher dividends than bond interest.
provides for the banking world it is different. When to borrow money for 0.5%
can, then 2% Bond Interest 300% profit!
be again the rich get richer and the poor are preparing further poverty.
Should we complain, therefore, on the rich, the millionaires get to the checkout?
Unfortunately, this is just not the solution, but rather creates even greater problems.
What is the real reason for the growing differences between the classes?
Part of the problem lies in the system and in the so-called structural change.
The much larger but in education and in the common paradigms,
beliefs. is now so much called for more education.
But what form?
is meant to include financial education? Sorry, no!
Financial ignorance leads but just on these paradoxes,
that the poor go because of their ignorance in the
wrong equipment.
we take the example of millionaires to pay. Works well as
"party slogan. But what does it mean?
While we're in a low interest rates, then
2% interest rates mean to an applied one million times just € 20 000 €
income in the year. If you subtract taxes, insurance
must you keep ......? Let's say 1,500 euros per month.
Did the caller "millionaires to checkout" once recalculated?
lump sum is wrong. is
I am not now defend why their empire, there are injustices to be resolved.
The bold claims that ill-considered fear of the future, lead
always to the paradoxes that make it worse, the bottom line.
The investors involved in demonize the stock market make money?
The state is still a shareholder and therefore every citizen. If the
not state become even better as an investor, you might have any more?
would result in a better financial education, perhaps to less
nebulous have fears, but to choose the right stocks?
So, instead of lump sum to denigrate successful investors, is
perhaps part of the solution for the future is that "arms"
to also buy the good times, right shares?
The ignorant and fearful just left the stock market.
The "Experts" and "rich" buy now to the favorable
stock prices. Thus, the poor more poorer and the rich get richer
. If education does not change, no laws will change anything.
If there was a law that all healthy bit of your health
make
would need, then all recipients pay more attention to their health?
If all who have ordered their field well, have to give fruit,
would then start all the recipients to order their gardens and fields better?
We should not focus only on those who have, but above all
also among those who have not. That is what education and what
performance should be required.
intended to be
If the gap between rich and poor only through closed
that only one side moving towards the other
, then we will soon have all on one page, in this case the poverty.
In the middle you get only if they move both sides.
Another paradox, then, is to try to reach the center by wanting
eliminate only one edge. Only if both edges removed
be formed middle. However, be smaller, the plate must be so small
if we cut off the edges.
So it is not the solution?
"The spirit that has created the problem, not solve it,"
said Albert Einstein.
The solution lies at the next higher level. Let us stop
only think about the distribution of a cake, but
start We consistently to take care of the creation of new cake
. This takes but a different formation.
And more joy to the future!
oppressed it is not Martin Luther similar:
"I was still a cake ........."
plant Sincerely
Wolfgang Sonnenburg
wining for life
A holiday snow in the mountains of Germany, Austria or Switzerland can mean both peace and tranquility, as well as action and sports. During choose some for a cozy, secluded mountain lodge to make the holiday with snow shoes, it takes the other for a snowboarding trip or a skiing holiday in the fashionable ski resorts in the Alps. Who the day on the Runway has spent crashes are not uncommon following the nightlife of the ski resorts. Apres-ski you can turn night into day and celebrate until the morning in a cabin party. Particularly useful are the ski resorts of St. Moritz, Ischgl Kitzbühel or which have become known far beyond national borders. Even in Winter 2010 / 2011 is a holiday enjoyed great popularity in the snow, especially on Christmas and New Year. 
